Specific Futures Market Trades
In this section I want to share and review specific trades, good or bad. These will primarily be crude oil, long bond, or equity emini trades. I will explain the trades in detail, including rational for taking the trade, specific aspects of trade such as entry, stop, etc, and also final outcome of the trade in question. I will post pertinent, appropriate feedback, so feel free to offer it. I am also open to posting similar trades from others.
My brokerage is Interactive Brokers, and I.B. has recently allowed the use of paper trading via their propietary trading platform, Trader Workstation and using the same data feed as a regular account. This is quite similar to the same funtion with Ninja Trader and begins with an arbitrary $1,000,000 amount. I will use this paper trading account for these trades, though many will also be in my regular account.
Friday Feb. 10
CRAP! Bonds have risen sharply overnight, slow and steady. I "KNEW" (you can never KNOW), that this might happen, but I did not want to hold that position overnight because I was afraid it might test lower again. Nonetheless, when bonds could not go lower after the auction, I suspected that higher was the future, as I noted in my last comment yesterday. I thought I would have a chance to buy this am in pre market hours. I can.....but at a much higher price. My mistake.
There will be other opportunities! There are ALWAYS other opportunities.
jobs report out. Bonds dropped lower, to low of 141 13 which is well below yesterdays low of 141 30. I waited, doing nothing, until 45 minutes had passed and i thought the odds of a lower drop were decreased. Bonds tested the lows, but could not continue in that direction. 3 months charts indicate that 141 10 - 141 20 is an area representing the lower end of a longer term trading range. With the 30 year auction today, and no selling lower right away, I thought a good trade would be to go long, looking for bond price to trade into yesterday's range prior to auction. I will be out of this trade before auction. Too dangerous. My stop is the low at 13. My initial out is 141 30.
Thursday Summary
I made the trade above and it was profitable. My plan going into the day was to trade long in the early hours, because I thought that the bond market had had time to settle and balance, I suspected equities would not rally, I thought the sell off after the jobs report might be overdone, and i thought that there might be some buying PRIOR to the bond auction at 1pm.
I made money. The account, despite the screw up with the out of town oil trade is now at 103,750. But there were some issues. I expected the am trade to carry me back into yesterday's range. It did not. I got out late, but still profitable. Later, when price rotated lower, I got in at two separate price levels. I made money, but this was a poor trade. Price did go lower later, and easily could have done that with me.
The postives:
- I made money
- I changed my profit objective when the market did not do what I thought it would (in the time I expected)
- I was out WAY before the auction.......which was mandatory
- I lost money on two trades, but cut them short
- I had stops, and all trades thought out, up front
I STILL may have to think out how to do these trades for the website. It simply takes time to document all this in real time, and I it causes me to use two data feeds ( which today were quite different for some reason and had me confused). But hopefully I can figure out a way to do this.
Right now I am leaning long on bonds, but would look to buy them, not today, but perhaps tomorrow after a test and bounce. AFTER a bounce!
WEDNESDAY 2/8
The oil trade is underwater. I handled it poorly.
I took the same trade in my personal account and got out with oil at 96.7 and the trade profitable.
This account has a different username and password and I was out of town and did not remember it. No excuse.
I am sure this looks like sour grapes. I will go on from here and make the money back in this accoutnt.
Trying to figure out where to get out here, with Petroleum Status at 10:30a. I will also have to go back to Ninja account for paper trading, as I.B. won't allow me to use both personal account and paper account at same time.
Today could be a big day for bond trading. The bond market has been killed since Friday, and there is a 10 yr. bond auction today, with 30 yr. tomorrow, AND the Dow is approaching new highs. Look at the chart on left and see the bond market balancing prior to the auction news at 1 pm. I would go with the break from balance and monitor for continuation. Any move with strength, should keep going.
Bond Trade
1:20, well after 10 year auction. Bond prices test lower, but cannot go lower and remain in balance. I am going long bonds at 142 04, with stop at 141 26, below balance. I will look for 142 10 profit.
1:48 Not much happening in this trade. Price unmoved from entry. I got in too soon. Price is not exploring higher right now. 15 minutes more, and I will get out of trade. Changed my mind and got out at even, 142 04. Taking too long, I don't like trade anymore.
3:12....bonds went up to 142 14 only minutes after i got out of trade. Back down to 142 07 now. Balancing Day.......Tomorrow is the big day for a move, with the 30 year auction.
2/2/12 Long bond futures at 144 13
I am initiating a long bond futures trade at 144 13 now, 10:37 am Feb 2.
IDEA: I am bearish equities, and see bonds showing strength. Plan is to go long at 144 13 (filled at 12)
and have a stop just below the lows of the morning at 144 5. Sell ALL if that is hit.
My profit objective is 145 02 short term, but I will use a trailing stop if Dow falls and I think further gain is likely.
Only in the trade minutes and realized that my contract number is twice what I intended. I will sell 12 contracts now at 144 12.......11:10 am
EXIT TRADE AT 11:52 am ....SOLD REMAINING 13....profit 1897
The chart below is a profile chart showing the balance that had developed. Today's trading, far from showing price strength, was simply showing balance. I did not like the trade and got out with a small profit.
Oil Put Future Option .....buy 5 @ with strike 97
Oil put future option? What the hell is this guy talking about. I know that is what you are thinking.
Here is the situation. The Dow is up 130 as I write this. I respect that move, but think it is overdone. I do not think today brings new highs in the Dow, but if it does, that is my out. I see oil up .97 right now and approaching some short term highs. It may break through this, I do not know, but Oil yesterday broke below my outline of a trading range, the lower limit at 97.21. Others may put this lower limit at 94.5 or 95.5, but I think oil will go lower. I think it is showing weakness, and to not be significantly higher after this jobs report supports that view. My plan is to buy these put futures options, and to get out if the Dow goes to new highs, or if oil trades back into the trading range with volume or closes today higher than 97.21. Otherwise I keep the puts and reassess on Monday or end of day today.